Usability & Beyond

In the beginning, there was the Bradley Effect.The Bradley Effect describes an election event where the a candidate who is clearly leading in the polls ultimately loses the election. Certainly you’ve heard about it. Everyone has. It made the front page of the India Times. The effect is named for the 1982 California Governor’s race in which Bradley succumbed to Deukmejian despite having a substantial lead in the polls up to a few days before the election. The effect suggests that there is a gap between what people report to pollsters and what they did/will do in the voting booth. Election analysts suggested that race and social desirability were factors shaping voting behavior. To wit: when polled about their intentions (particularly by an African-American pollster) many white voters reported intent to vote for Bradley (or undecided). But in the privacy of the voting booth, they voted for Bradley’s white opponent. These voters, it is said, feared that if they reported their real preferences they would be labeled racist. Most people don’t want to be called racist. It’s generally not socially desirable.

The so-called Bradley Effect is a challenge to pollsters. It indicates that there is an margin of errors in the polls. And this year, preliminary election poll-to-outcome analysis by Albertson and Greenwald (2008) suggests a Reverse Bradley Effect emerged next to the Bradley Effect. A Reverse Bradley Effect occurs when polls in traditionally Republican areas underreport support for the African-American candidate. The same social desirability explanation applies. In a traditionally Republican area when a pollster calls, many voters simply reflect the local sentiment independent of their actual leanings and (interestingly) their race.